(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 2950 Answers – Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA ) has incredible growth plans. For starters, they aim to sell half a million electric cars by 2020 – just four years from now. In the year ended last December, the company sold 50,580 cars, so achieving 500,000 sales in calendar 2020 means 58% CAGR over five years. But with around 400,000 reservations for the Model 3, Tesla CEO Elon Musk wants 500,000 unit sales by 2018. Tesla is now looking for a 115% CAGR over three years. Wow…
Ramping up the Model 3 to meet unexpected demand is pulling Tesla's sales target of 500,000 units from 2020 to 2018. That's a very ambitious growth. – Author
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If Tesla hits its ambitious goals and continues to grow beyond 2020, shareholders could see spectacular returns that could come sooner than Tesla optimists expect. On the other hand, if the company cannot operate, cannot find customers, cannot obtain and/or attract the necessary capital, cannot produce cars profitably, no, no, no – then TSLA will not be worth, certainly not how many thousands of dollars it could have for shareholders.
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The Model 3 is aimed at the BMW 3 Series and similar high-end D ICE class cars. – Tesla photo, author's commentary
Tesla is right to want to ramp up Model 3 production as soon as possible. Being slower will give customers to other automakers that would otherwise have been on hold until now. But will Tesla's Model 3 rocket win or make the company a hole-in-one (as they say in the rocket industry…)
Tesla is working hard to put the Model X into production. Now it's better and production is ramping up, but the Model X was years behind schedule and production was slowed by a complex design that allowed for unbridled creativity before manufacturing. The Model 3 better be different or Tesla and its shareholders will suffer.
Tesla has carved a path that is both dangerous and has great potential. The stock took a big hit as the “Nervous Nellies” ran to the sidelines, but bold ventures looking for big rewards are what this company is all about – what Tesla does. Let's look at the prospects for the Model 3 and evaluate Tesla's capabilities. Let's see if the Model 3 is a car that is fast and profitable for Tesla.
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The Model 3 is an electric car intended to compete in price, size and performance with ICE cars like the BMW 3 series. A year ago I thought about the Model 3 and analyzed the cost and car performance.
Cost estimates for the Model 3 produced a year ago suggested a small profit margin for the base, $35,000 configuration with no options, but better profits on larger, higher-performance variants . – Author
My predictions for the Model 3 so far agree with most of what Tesla has announced about the car. But there are some important things we didn't learn by the end of March. We don't know if the Model 3 will be considered. We don't know how big the Model 3 battery will be.
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As luck would have it, there is new information that allows us to estimate the weight of the performance version of the Model 3. If the weight of the Model 3 version is close to the predicted weight, then the other versions will agree with predicted weight. And weight determines battery size and cost for most systems, car structure, etc. If the Model 3 weighs more than expected, making the Model 3 profitable could be difficult for Tesla.
Motor Trend got exclusive access to the Model 3 recently at Tesla's GigaFactory, and they posted this video where test director Kim Reynolds says the front tires are Michelin 235/35-20 and the rear is 275/30-20.
The weight estimation strategy is as follows. As the vehicle accelerates, the downward force on the front wheels is reduced and weight is transferred to the rear wheels. The force that propels the car forward is exerted by the wheels where they contact the road and this force is resisted by the inertia (mass) of the car at the center of the road. This force tends to tilt the car backwards and reduces the downward force on the front wheels and increasing the downward force on the rear wheels tends to tilt the car forward. These forces must be balanced or the vehicle will overturn.
The balance point is where [weight shift] X [wheelbase] = [acceleration force] X [CG height]. If the car is accelerating at 1g, then the acceleration force is equal to the car's weight, and the percentage of the car's weight transferred from front to back is just [CG height] / [wheelbase]. If we consider that Tesla engineers have chosen a design point where the performance of the car, fully loaded and accelerating at 1g brings the rear wheel to the load limit, then we can determine the weight of the car as follows.
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Combining what we know about the Model 3 with some reasonable design assumptions, we can calculate the empty weight of the performance version.
The weight estimate obtained this way is a scientific guess, not a physical determination, but by correlating what we know with some reasonable engineering assumptions, it gives a “feel” how heavy the Model 3. It turns out that this estimate is very close to the first one based on predicted battery performance and effects.
N previous estimate of the weight-restricted performance version based on expected improvements in battery chemistry and weight savings
This differs from the latest weight estimate based on wheel load under acceleration (3,596 lb) by only 2 kg (about 1 kg). This adds confidence to the weight, battery size and cost projections made earlier for the Model 3.
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The latest Model 3 weight hints support earlier estimates that the car will be lighter, have a smaller battery, be lighter, taller, and make money for Tesla, especially in larger versions and more high options. That's good news for the company, but investors shouldn't expect it if Tesla can't build the Model 3 efficiently, quickly, and in volume.
Tesla and its shareholders have endured the pain and delays of a highly complex car design. The Model X really is the ultimate expression of ‘suburban bling' and Tesla will sell as many as they can. The problem is unfortunately in the “doing” part – so to speak. If the Model 3 isn't easier to make than the Model X, the 400,000 Model 3 customers with reservations won't see the car for a long time. If Tesla wants the Model 3 to be successful, it needs to change to simplicity and manufacturing, not just bling.
There are three elements of the Model 3 design that can be immediately seen and/or inferred to indicate that Tesla is focusing on simplifying the Model 3. However, if one expects Tesla to simply use a proven approach for the sake of manufacturing, will be failed. . It's an innovative company, staffed by some of the best innovators in the world (including CEO Elon Musk).
Tesla was a great innovator. Innovation is not the problem with the Model X. What makes the Model X difficult is that Tesla is evolving in the direction of “cool features” and “suburban bling” and not in the direction of manufacturing. The Model 3 is full of Tesla innovation, and hopefully this time, the innovation will go in the right direction.
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Tesla used the cool glass roof a lot on the Model 3. It looks great. Rear seat headroom is improved. Tesla has mastered coating/absorbing technology to ward off harmful UV rays, intense sunlight and unwanted heat with the large glass roof on Model S owners.
Extending the rear window of the Model 3 forward to form the glass roof removes parts and strengthens the rear of the car while the windshield strengthens and stiffens the car in front of the ‘A' pillar. – Tesla photo, author's commentary
In addition to being cool, in addition to being innovative, the large rear glass roof of the Model 3 is simple. What Tesla was able to do, from an engineering perspective, add a
