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(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 2935 Answers

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We’re doing our best to sort through the answer manually and updated it here, currently the best answer we’ve found for this is: Editor’s Note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Raymond Mason as a new contributor. It’s easy to become an Alpha Contributor looking for and monetizing your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Essential. Click here to learn more”

At the current price of $16.00 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:ARLP) is a cheap (13.5%) high dividend yield buy with less risk than the market price. As the old saying goes, “Cash is king.” Coal isn’t exactly money, but ARLP is a good converter.

With net income per unit of $2.73 for FY18, the partnership continues to generate consistent cash (FY17: $2.25, FY16: $2.51), where as L.P. required to pay a substantial portion ($2.07 in FY18).

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Although the outlook for coal is quite bleak, the main concern in the long-term future (~10 years) is not regulatory or environmental issues, especially for domestic production (72% sales volume – Source: ARLP FY18 10-K ) US market under Trump. Instead, pressure from low-cost LNG as well as trade war tensions will continue to drag on margins and tonnage sold as in 2Q19, leaving EPU ~30% short (Source: Seeking Alpha) News ).

Despite this pressure, which was extremely severe last quarter and will continue to weigh on ARLP, future cash flows, even in a conservative scenario, are still understated, as I will explain in my analysis of based on DCF (Excel download link) below. In addition to a solid balance sheet and good fundamentals, ARLP is a cheap (13.5%) high-yielding dividend buying investment with downside potential that outweighs the upside, even in the conservative base case.

I arrive at $18.90 PT with DCF at 6.37% WACC and 0% year-end growth over the 10-year forecast period. A bottom-up DCF valuation seems appropriate because, given ARLP’s structure as an L.P., we can expect to receive most of the future cash flows as value, with most of the income generated sold on a coal basis. While the final value represents a significant amount ($1.19 billion) in our equity value, we were able to justify this amount in our valuation because the amount of our Partner’s Equity is almost equal ($1.18 billion). Therefore, assuming profitable operations continue, even if ARLP dissolves at the end of our 10-year forecast period, the final value we consider will be covered by the disbursement of partner capital.

I predict sales growth flat discount c. -1% VV and decreasing operating margin c. -5% per year to 28% in 2024E and 22% in 2028E.

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The revenue model is segmented by Sales and other activities and coal sales, further segmented by mining group (Illinois Basin, Appalachia, Other and Corporate). Revenues for each mine group are projected on a unit basis, per tonne of coal sold, with tonnes sold per mine group (modeled using conservative data-based estimates). Historical data), revenue per ton (derived from historical data and heat content of coal) and cost per ton (derived from mine type and percentage of remaining reserves). Throughout the valuation process, the inputs and assumptions chosen are inherently low to demonstrate ARLP’s underlying cash flow strength and maintain a high-yielding dividend payout, even in a sub-optimal scenario.

Historical data for tons of coal sold in the Illinois Basin (~75% of total sales) over the past 5 years shows a flat sideways trend where sales appear to be declining. Our model predicts that this flat pattern in c. 0% on an annual basis for the next three or four years before sales begin to decline rapidly. Our current model assumes a similar decline outlook for Appalachia, although this mining pool has a reasonable increase from c. 3% annually in recent years. Thus, our base case included a cautious view, highlighting how the ARLP can provide funding even as coal accelerates its exit.

These forecasts, along with the pricing and cost estimates below, place our model just below management’s fiscal 2019 guidance of $45.16 in revenue per ton sold. and expected sales of ~ 41.6 million tonnes (Source: Search Alpha News).

The main risk to these basic assumptions lies in the potential for negative regulatory impacts, such as the shutdown of coal-dependent power plants and a reduction in trade war tensions, export capacity. While regulatory risks are ubiquitous, given the current political climate in the United States, I do not expect any near-term impact over the next few years. However, it should be noted here that ARLP has begun to expand outside the US domestic market in recent years, with 28% of tonnage in 2018 being sold as exports, up from just 4.5% in 2016. In these international markets, developments regulatory developments are much more difficult to predict, especially in Europe, where the growing political movement towards renewables could have negative effects. While regulatory risks exist internationally, these markets could be a safe haven from domestic pressure from low-cost LNG, even though recent trade war tensions could reduce the value of that export. However, simply choosing to diversify can mitigate the risks ARLP faces, as management can shift between domestic and international markets to optimize margins and profitability.

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NB Our model projects the closure of the Appalachian mining segment in early 2025E based on coal reserve information provided by ARLP (see below).

Our key assumptions for a unit per tonne of coal sold are quite negative and take into account a worst-case scenario. For the sake of the model, we will look at the continued negative impact of low-cost LNG, which caused coal prices to fall by more than 15% between 2016 and 2017. We forecast coal prices to fall to c. -1% on an annual basis, significantly lower than inflation at 3.2%. Please note that we expect Appalachian’s revenue to be lower than Illinois’ due to the higher heat content of Appalachian coal and therefore the higher base price (per percentage point with higher impact large).

Furthermore, we anticipate an increase in cost per tonne sold to c. 1.5% year-on-year, mainly due to greater than expected difficulties in removing deeper coal reserves as well as inflation. While historical cost per tonne sold data shows large variations from year to year, it is almost impossible for us to accurately model these fluctuations, so for this, we focus on estimating the overall trend. Please note that we are increasing costs more aggressively in Appalachia due to less currently assigned stock, which in turn requires costly expansion of new unassigned stock to resume production.

ARLP’s 10-K profile contains valuable information about the coal reserves used by its operations, allowing us to calculate the (maximum) time periods for the operation of each mine, as well as to identify base rates for coal prices of various mining operations based on pools. on the weighted average heat of coal produced in the mines of each group. Using the data provided by the ARLP home page on each mine’s individual production rates, we were able to apply the growth rates used in our revenue models to the tons sold at these individual production levels to see that how quickly our reserves will be depleted and in which mines.

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For the purposes of our calculations, we will again assume the theoretical worst case, i.e. only 50% of possible reserves actually exist, where 50% is the minimum probability according to mining audit requirements for reserve classification. as much as possible. Using these conditions, we can calculate that coal reserves at the Appalachian Mine will inevitably be depleted within our 10-year forecast period.

Due to the increasing difficulty of mining deeper and remaining reserves, it is likely that coal mining in Appalachia will close long before all coal reserves are mined, due to very low operating margins (especially CF/Revenue priced CapEx). As such, I believe the entire Appalachian segment will close as early as 2024E

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