(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 2297 Answers – In my first search for an alpha article on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), I asked a simple question: “Will Tesla become a trillion-dollar company?” Now, less than five years later, that question has a definitive answer. Yesterday, Tesla officially surpassed a $1 trillion market value, joining an elite club of other tech titans such as Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT). However, a trillion dollar valuation may not be the end for Tesla, but just another beginning.
Tesla is now up 30% since I made my company's Q3 forecast about two weeks ago. So why are stocks so full in two weeks? Shares rose after the company's record quarterly report, and since then the positive momentum has continued. To top it off, Hertz (HTZZ) announced an order for 100,000 Tesla Model 3 vehicles, pushing the company's market value past the $1 trillion mark for the first time.
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Tesla has more big deals and huge growth ahead of it, and the stock is rising as more market participants join the stock. In other news, Tesla posted strong quarterly results last week, indicating that the company is likely to continue to be significantly more profitable going forward. The fourth quarter should be another record quarter for Tesla, and the company should continue to post strong growth in the coming years as we move forward. So while stocks may be experiencing a temporary pullback/consolidation phase after the recent recovery, stocks should continue to rise through the end of 2022 and beyond.
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Tesla shares have risen strongly recently and the stock is currently hovering around new all-time highs. Tesla is up about 85% since its last corrective low, and the stock is up 172% from the company's 52-week low almost a year ago. However, from a technical point of view, Tesla is overbought in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (“RSI”) is currently above 90, which is even higher than the last peak at the beginning of the year. In addition, the CCI and the full stochastic are also overstretched here.
As such, we are likely to see a slight decline and a consolidation phase near $1,000 in the near future. Despite this, the technical picture remains bullish in the long term and Tesla should continue its uptrend. In my last analysis, I mentioned that $1,000 is a reasonable year-end price target. Given recent events, I think $1,200 at the end of the year is the best estimate.
In two simple words: “Tesla delivers.” While the company has struggled to deliver on its promises in the past, Tesla is doing much better now. Last quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 241,300 vehicles, about 10% more than the consensus estimate of 220,900 vehicles.
The company recently reported earnings that were much better than expected. The company's earnings per share were $1.86 compared to $1.56 expected. GAAP net income was $1.62 billion, up 389% year-over-year. To take a closer look at Tesla's third quarter results, let's compare my recent estimates with the company's results and annual changes in the company's financial performance.
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By just a penny, my non-GAAP EPS estimate came close to Tesla's official result. The company's actual figure was $1.86, up 144% from last year. Perhaps more importantly, Tesla's $1.44 GAAP earnings per share is up 433% year-on-year. My non-GAAP net income forecast was also very meager, only $21.5 million, about 1% down.
We see that Tesla's earnings are significantly higher compared to last year, especially under GAAP, which indicates the company's exceptional profitability growth potential. Operating income exceeded $2 billion and operating margin was almost 15% (slightly below my estimate of 15.76%). This margin rate was approximately 5.34% higher than the previous year and 7.8% higher when considering operating margins excluding regulatory loans. Again, this indicates an increase in the company's profitability and a decrease in dependence on income from loans provided by regulators. Excluding regulatory loans, the company's operating margin was a very good 12.5%.
The company's R&D spending of $611 million was slightly more than I expected at $550 million. Research and development also increased by about 67% year on year. But I don't mind rising costs, as Tesla's R&D efforts seem to be paying off with new product launches. The SG&A was $994 million, which is roughly my $990 million figure. What's interesting is that SG&A is only up 12% from last year. This small increase is due to the fact that total sales increased by 57%, and the company delivered many more vehicles this year. This momentum shows that Tesla continues to manage costs very well and continually improve efficiency.
My gross profit figures were very close to the company's results, and Tesla's gross profit was up 77% year-over-year. In addition, if we excluded regulatory loans, the company's gross margin would increase by approximately 103% year-on-year. I expected the company's gross margin to be 26.2%, but the actual figure was slightly higher at 26.6%. Excluding regulatory credit gains, Tesla will still have a very good gross margin of 25.1%. The company achieved an exceptionally strong combined gross margin for the automotive industry of 30.5%.
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This high score illustrates the company's apparent ability to improve manufacturing efficiency through Tesla's economies of scale. Also, after deducting regulatory loans, the company's Model 3/Y segment seems to be operating at a gross margin of around 29-30% (surprisingly efficient). Excluding regulatory loans, total gross margin for the year improved from 17% to around 25%. I was a little optimistic about the company's earnings, but Tesla's earnings are still better than consensus, up nearly 60% year-over-year.
The main reason for the rise in Tesla shares is the huge growth potential of the company. A “significant growth story” is not what you usually hear from a company that is expected to bring in over $70 billion next year. I have seen analysts try to compare Tesla to Alphabet, Amazon or Facebook (FB), but I don't think such a comparison exists.
A possible comparison here is with Amazon about 5-10 years ago when the company was experiencing explosive growth. But Amazon now expects next year's revenue to be around $562 billion, and the company could double that revenue by 2030. Alphabet will generate nearly $300 billion in revenue next year and is expected to double by 2030. Facebook plans to earn about $140 billion. next year, and also by the end of this decade, it should roughly double its sales. Here are Tesla forecasts, according to which by 2030 the company can increase revenue by almost ten times.
These strong growth rates explain why we see Tesla trading at a profit of around 120 times its expected earnings in 2022. Yes, Alphabet is trading at 25x its EPS and Amazon at 50x. But you're looking at companies that are likely to double earnings per share from the previous year. the next 7-8 years, while Tesla offers significantly higher profit growth potential.
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We also have to consider income growth. Why, for example, does Amazon trade at a P/E ratio of about twice that of Alphabet? The main reason for this momentum is Amazon's likely ability to grow much more than Alphabet in the coming years. For example, analysts predict that Amazon could roughly quadruple its earnings per share by 2030. On the other hand, Alphabet is likely to increase earnings per share by only 100% by 2030. That's why Amazon's P/E ratio, which is currently twice that of Alphabet, makes sense. in the shared growth history of the two companies.
Tesla is currently trading at a forward P/E of around 120, but analysts expect earnings per share to rise by about six times by 2030. The company's forecast earnings-per-share growth is well above Alphabet's expectations of more than double and Amazon's expectations of four times. So Tesla deserves a higher ratio.
However, I think 6x is very conservative and Tesla can probably increase earnings per share a lot more. Given the company's expected 9x revenue growth by 2030, and expectations of greater efficiencies and economies of scale, we should see much more earnings-per-share growth than the current 6x forecast.
Tesla earnings could look like this: 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Sales growth 30% 28% 19% 90% E 19% 90% E 19% E09% 90% 19% 90% E 19% 90% E $50 Forward P/E 120 115 110 100 90 80 70 65 60 Price $1,440 1,725 1,980 2,300 2,520 3 to 2,080 3 increase
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If you're wondering what's driving sales growth in 2025, this is the Tesla Semi, another product that should open up a key market for Tesla to compete. Overall, I don't think my earnings-per-share projections are overly optimistic and we see that if Tesla continues to show strong growth and good execution, we may see the stock rise significantly in the coming years. I also understand that the share price is $3,500.
