(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 482 Answers – In 2005, the world economy “cut off”. 2001-2005 per capita energy consumption in the world increased by 2.3% per year. China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. in December, increasing demand for all types of fossil fuels. The US also had a housing bubble caused by low interest rates and lax underwriting standards.
In 2005, as now, the problem was energy cost inflation, which drove headline inflation. Food price inflation was a particular problem. The Federal Reserve decided to address this problem by raising the federal funds rate from 1.00% to 5.25% starting in 2004. June 30 until 2006 June 30
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Now the world is facing a completely different problem. High energy prices again affect food prices and inflation in general. However, the underlying energy consumption trend is very different. Global growth rate of per capita energy consumption 2001-2005. was 2.3% per year, but energy consumption per capita between 2021 and 2017 appears to be decreases slightly.
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The Federal Reserve now appears to be using a similar interest rate approach under very different circumstances. In this post I will try to explain why I don’t think this approach will produce the desired result.
[1] Since 2004 until 2006 oil prices fell only in 2008 when interest rates were increased. July.
The easiest way to see the impact (or lack thereof) of interest rate hikes is to look at the average monthly price of oil.
Figure 2 Average monthly Brent crude oil spot price based on data from the US Energy Information Administration. The last month displayed is 2022. July.
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The US Federal Reserve Bank started raising interest rates in 2004. in June, when the average Brent oil price was only $38.22 per barrel. These interest rates stopped rising in 2006. at the end of June, when oil prices averaged $68.56 per barrel. The price of oil eventually reached $132.72 per barrel on this basis in 2008. July. (All these amounts are in today’s dollars and are not adjusted for inflation). Thus, the highest price was more than three times higher than since 2004. in June, when the US Federal Reserve Bank decided to start raising interest rates.
Based on Figure 2 (including my notes on the timing of interest rate hikes), I would conclude that raising interest rates didn’t work very well with falling oil prices when it was attempted in 2006-2004. Of course, the economy was growing rapidly then. The rapid economic growth probably led to the very high oil prices seen in 2008. in the middle
I expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates now in a slow-growing world economy could be quite different. The global debt bubble may burst and end up in a worse situation than in 2008. financial crisis. Indirectly, both asset and commodity prices, including oil, will tend to fall very low.
Analysts looking at the situation only from an energy perspective tend to overlook the interconnectedness of the economy. Factors that energy analysts ignore (especially debt that cannot be repaid as interest rates rise) can lead to an outcome that is almost the opposite of conventional belief. A typical belief among energy analysts is that tight oil supply will lead to very high prices and higher oil production. As it stands now, I expect the result to be closer to the opposite: the price of oil will fall due to financial problems caused by high interest rates, and these low oil prices will lead to even lower oil production.
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[2] The objective of the US Federal Reserve’s increased target interest rate was to moderate the pace of global economic growth. Looking at Figure 1, per capita energy consumption has increased much less since the Great Recession. I doubt that now, in 2022, we want even less of an increase (actually more of a decrease) in per capita energy consumption in the coming years.*
Looking at Figure 1, growth in per capita energy consumption has been very slow since the Great Recession. The question is: What is the point of governments and their central banks pushing the world economy down now in 2022 when the world economy can barely maintain international supply lines and supply enough diesel for all the world’s trucks and farm equipment?
If the world economy is pushed now, what will be the result? Will some countries not be able to afford fossil fuel energy products in the future? This can cause problems in both growing and transporting food, at least in these countries. Will the entire world experience a major crisis such as a financial crisis? The global economy is a self-regulating system. It is difficult to predict exactly how the situation will develop.
[3] Although the growth rate of energy consumption per capita after 2008 was much lower in 2011-2013. the price of crude oil quickly recovered to more than $120 a barrel, adjusted for inflation.
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Figure 3 shows that oil prices recovered immediately after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Quantitative Easing (QE), which the US Federal Reserve Bank started in 2008. at the end, helped energy prices rise again. QE helped keep governments’ borrowing costs low, so governments ran higher deficits than would have been possible without raising interest rates. These large deficits increased the demand for all kinds of goods, including oil, and thus increased prices.
The chart above shows average annual Brent crude prices through 2021. The chart above does not show prices for 2022. The current price of Brent oil is around $91 per barrel. So today’s oil prices are slightly higher than they were recently, but not as high as they were in 2011-2013. or the late seventies. The extreme reaction we see is very strange. The problem seems to be much bigger than the price of oil itself.
[4] High prices 2006-2013. allowed to increase the production of unconventional oil. These high oil prices also helped avoid a post-2005 decline in conventional oil production.
Detailed information on the exact amount of unconventional oil is difficult to obtain, but some countries are known to have unconventional oil production. For example, the United States has become a leader in oil production from shale formations. Canada also produces tight oil, but it also produces a significant amount of very heavy oil from the oil sands. Venezuela produces a different type of very heavy oil. Brazil produces crude oil, sometimes called pre-salt crude oil, from beneath the ocean’s salt layer. These types of unconventional mining are usually expensive.
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Figure 4 shows global oil production for various country combinations. The top row contains total global crude oil production. The lower gray line represents the total production of conventional oil in the world. Unconventional oil production has been increasing since, say, 2010, so this estimate for the 2010s and later schedule years is better than previous years.
Figure 4 Crude oil and condensate production according to US Energy Information Administration international data. The bottom rows show the total amount of raw material and condensate production in the listed countries. These countries have a lot of unconventional oil production, but they may also have conventional oil production.
This chart shows that global conventional oil production stabilized after 2005. Some people (often called “Peak Oilers”) worried that conventional oil production would peak and begin to decline shortly after 2005.
It seems that after 2005 the volume of production did not decrease, it was a sudden rise in oil prices in 2004-2008. Figure 3 shows that in 1986-2003 oil prices were relatively low. When in 2004 and 2005 As oil prices began to rise, oil companies found they had enough revenue to start using more intensive (and expensive) extraction methods. This allowed more oil to be extracted from existing conventional oil fields. Of course, even with these more intensive methods, there are diminishing returns.
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These diminishing returns are likely the main reason why conventional oil production began to decline in 2019. Indirectly, falling yields likely contributed to the decline in 2020. and oil supply failure to return to 2018 (or 2019) levels in 2021.
[5] A better way to look at world crude oil production is on a per capita basis, as world crude oil needs depend on world population.
Everyone in the world needs the benefits of crude oil, as it is used both in agriculture and in the transportation of all kinds of goods. Thus, as the population grows, the demand for crude oil increases. I prefer to look at per capita crude oil production.
Figure 5 Crude oil per capita
