(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 862 Answers – The ratings and views we present here come after Scott Kennedy posts his weekly updates to the REIT Forum.
NLY-G made a significant recovery around $25.00. This is surprising because it means that investors do not fully understand the difference in future cash flows between NLY-G and the corresponding preferred shares: NLY-I and NLY-F.
(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 862 Answers
NLY-G does not win by any evaluation metric. Since all of these stocks are trading near $25.00, a category called “variable price yield” becomes very important. For investors who own NLY-G, would you be interested in buying the stock if the yield was 4.44% instead of 6.60%? maybe not. Mortgage-backed REITs do not require yields below 5% to be attractive to most investors.
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The most common response to this problem is, “I'll sell it before I get in the water.” This leads to several difficulties. Are there enough potential buyers who don't know about the upcoming variable rate? If so, that would be great for sellers (and terrible for buyers). However, even if we ignore future floating rates, NLY-I still provides investors with good returns today. This should have been a strong factor helping NLY-I's share price, but it wasn't. If investors think the stock is callable, and therefore don't care about the floating rate, they would be better off buying NLY-F than NLY-G because they would have a better yield on the call.
If the shares are not named, we see a significant difference in cash flow after introducing variable rates. When each share is floated, dividends for NLY-F and NLY-I will be approximately $0.20 per share per year. This is significant and does not reflect the current share price at all. Even if short-term interest rates rise, a share of NLY-F or NLY-I pays about $0.20 per share in additional dividends each year.
You can see the stock has traded in a wide range for months, and we think the spread is reasonable:
To put this situation into perspective, we've put together a few more charts. This shows the closing price of the first stock:
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You can see that NLY-F and NLY-I regularly trade at premiums to NLY-G, and through March 2020, the stock has consistently traded at a premium of up to $25.
I like the next one even more. In the chart below, we have subtracted the closing price for NLY-G from the closing prices for NLY-F and NLY-I. This allows us to zoom in further and gives us a better position for comparison:
As volatility approaches, investors should pay more attention to expected significant changes in dividends. In this case, there is only one logical reason for an investor to choose NLY-G over NLY-I or NLY-F. It will be like this:
“I bought these stocks near the bottom of the pandemic and made a huge profit in a taxable account.”
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If not, investors should switch NLY-G to one of the other stocks as soon as possible.
If the income under NLY-G is “significantly” less, the tax consequences will be worth it. However, we do not engage in tax consulting.
Investors holding NLY-G should seriously consider their position. If they want to own preferred shares of Anali Capital Management (NLY), they would be better off owning NLY-F or NLY-I. We're slightly biased toward NLY-I (over NLY-F) when prices are only a penny apart. Why? Because NLY-I has a fixed dividend until 30.6.2024. and a fixed-rate dividend is likely to be significantly higher than a variable-rate dividend. NLY-F will switch to a floating rate dividend from 30/09/2022. Investors in this NLY-I will receive approximately 1.75 years of additional call protection and fixed rate income. Then, the variable rate dividend for NLY-I is a hair less than the variable rate dividend for NLY-F.
Simply put, the difference between 4.993% and 4.989% is so small that it doesn't matter. The difference between 4.989% and 4.172% is large enough to be significant. The difference between NLY-G and NLY-I is about 204 times greater than the difference between NLY-I and NLY-F.
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This is what we consider to be one of those “house sweeps”. The class distinction here is absolutely ridiculous.
For a net cost of about $150 today (swapping NLY-G for NLY-I at a net price of $0.15 per share), you get:
Note: Actual prices for investors change in real time. Asking an investor to pay a net price of $0.25 per share ($250 per 1,000 shares) doesn't change the math because it's already in the home run category.
When we talk about “net worth $150”, this would be equivalent to selling 1,000 shares of NLY-G for $24.94 and buying 1,000 shares of NLY-I for $25.09. Net worth is $25,090 minus $24,940 = $150.
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We conclude the rest of the article with tables and charts that help readers track the common stock and preferred stock sectors.
REIT or BDC Agency Type Hybrid Multipurpose Commercial BDC AGNC CIM PMT BXMT MAIN NLY EFC NRZ GPMT TSLX DX MFA NYMT TRTX NEWT CMO ANH ARI ARCC ORC MITT XAN GAIN ARR WMC RC GBCINC CHICPSSVr Click.
Note that this is a price-to-book ratio. They do not use current estimates of book value. Book values change daily. Scott Kennedy provides regular updates on estimated book value, ratings and price targets through the REIT Forum.
Unfortunately, we have to repeat these thoughts every time we post, because if we don't talk about them, they keep coming up.
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This chart is not ready yet because we don't have enough reports. However, we will add it to the list soon. For a moment, we show the price-to-book ratio in two charts. Why? Investors should not compare the Q4 2020 book value of one REIT with the Q3 2020 book value of another REIT. By providing only two charts, we allow investors to ensure they are using comparable data.
Dividend yield is often mentioned in the comments, but choosing based on dividend yield is unwise and leads to inconsistent results. do not do this.
This chart is in the same order as the previous charts. So you know the highest price-to-book ratio (using previous GAAP book value) for each segment will be above. If you see any mistakes, don't hesitate. Manual updating of dividend rate data is required from time to time.
One of the next things that investors might ask about is the return on investment. This chart aggregates underlying earnings based on analyst consensus estimates. Note that the consensus price is not always the best price. In addition, there are ways to increase “main income” by changing accounting decisions or hedging. Therefore, investors should continue to pursue these values with caution. We do not rely on consensus estimates when making decisions.
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This chart gives you a quick look at which stocks are trading at a discount to the call price. Each of these preferred shares has a call value of $25.00, but this does not mean that the stock will be called. It is up to the company to decide whether or not they want to make the call.
For preferred stocks, yield stripped of “current” yield is much more useful. Fixed production uses scrap value. This is different from using the current value because it means we have already adjusted to calculate the dividend. This makes the process easier for investors.
We can talk about activities at “regular prices”. These are the prices that the investor will use when entering orders.
However, we provide discounted earnings to adjust the dividend calculation. In the spreadsheets we post to subscribers, we include the actual date of the dividend or, if the actual date is not yet known, the date of the anticipated dividend. If you are planning to buy stocks, you should check only the past dividends of the stock so that you can adjust your goals accordingly.
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Since many of these shares are convertible at a floating rate, we also want to look at what the return would be if the floating rate were used and the shares were still at the current price. We use “variable yield to price” to denote this. If the stock remains at the fixed rate indefinitely, the price will not change.
One thing to emphasize here is that we are in the manufacturing industry. The cost of shares should be included in the income. If a stock starts to rise, we don't just show a new “rate”, we adjust the new rate to the price that was dropped.
The XAN-C has a floor that inhibits ultimate swimming speed. The floor prevents the variable rate from falling below the original fixed rate. Accordingly, while XAN-C a
