(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 2456 Answers – Investors have experienced a sharp market crash this year, which has kept some stocks under control. The blood red color in this map shows the depth and breadth of death and the only bright spots are the gains in the health and social care sector.
The reason? The Federal Reserve began holding rates aggressively, reversing 14 years of calm. The results are what you see in the graph above.
(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 2456 Answers
Zombies are real. At least some of them are related to joint ventures. As defined by the Federal Reserve, zombie businesses are “non-performing businesses with low growth prospects that survive on substandard credit.”
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There are many articles that point to the rise of zombie companies that have greatly affected the dynamics of the US economy. But reliable information is difficult to find.
The Federal Reserve took this issue seriously and released a study about it a year ago acknowledging the problem and analyzing its impact.
The study sought to create a “scenario view of the spread of zombie organizations in the US economy.”
His conclusion at the time was that the proliferation of zombie companies, about 9 percent of public companies and 5 percent of private companies, “has not become a significant part of the U.S. economy.”
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These companies did not benefit from the improvement in credit market conditions due to the lack of financial support and financing after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, the study concluded: “It is too early to dismiss concerns that current economic conditions will lead to the creation of new zombie hordes. Difficult to predict, it could seriously damage some sectors of the economy.” enter, turn many companies into zombies”
Ironically, some Fed activists at the time compared publishing the study on the Fed's website to hiring a fox to take care of the chickens. After all, the presence of zombie companies is a direct result of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and quantitative easing measures (QE1, QE2, etc.). How does the Fed know that its own policies are wrong?
I give the Fed credit for at least agreeing on the issue and backing it up with a full set of numbers. That said, the Fed was written 1 year ago, when borrowing costs were as low as 1.25%. A lot can be done in a year.
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It will be very telling to see how the Fed's detailed investigation goes today. I didn't have the time or resources to do this, but I wanted to know the answer, so I decided to take a guess.
I did a statistical dive with the Altman Z-score. This tool was created by NYU Stern financial advisor Edward Altman in 1968 to measure business health and assess the likelihood of bankruptcy.
The Altman Z-Score (see Wikipedia version) has become the tool of choice for investors and bankers to assess a company's credit risk. We won't go into the details here, but it works like this:
For example, in 2007, an average Z-score of 1.81 allowed Altman to predict the impact of a stock market crash on the US stock market. He was right.
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Altman later explained that he believes a score below zero indicates a company is at risk of bankruptcy, versus 1.81 for the overall index.
So what is the global Altman Z score today? None of the data providers I signed up with gave me access to this number, so I had to choose.
I have two tools for doing this, the excellent Alpha Stock Finder, and another excellent service, Subscription, provided by GuruFocus. Each one has a different type of data they pull from and to be honest, I don't know which one is better. GuruFocus data is over 6x bigger, but is it more accurate?
When it comes to statistics, sometimes consistency is the enemy of quality. I'll keep it simple and give it to you.
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Regardless of the stock, we see the same results for the percentages above and below the 1.81 value.
So the average is better than 2007 – which ended with the 2008 financial crisis – but not by much.
We see a huge difference in bankruptcy rates. These are zombie teams. This number ranges from 8.3% to 15%.
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Remember, according to Altman himself, companies in this latter category are almost certain to go bankrupt within the next few years.
A quarter of businesses in America are in bad shape, and one in 10 businesses go bankrupt.
A zombie outbreak does not lead to a market crash. But if allowed to expand, it could lead to a marginal business with little or no growth. By selling goods and services in bulk at almost no profit, zombie companies prevent healthcare companies from increasing their profit margins as they compete with those healthy businesses for less labor and capital.
Low budgets, in turn, discourage healthcare businesses from investing in new capital, technology and innovation, even if profits are low. So the overall effect is to hinder economic growth.
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Killing zombies is great for the economy in the long run, even if the pain is acceptable in the short term. Later, when Schumpeter changed economic theory, zombies are not real. But he may have seen a generation of zombies at first glance.
What groups of zombies survive? Low interest rates, and quantitative easing. Stop and kill zombies.
Since 2008, during the global financial crisis, urgent measures have been requested by the authorities. So they created quantitative easing, helicopter money, and modern money science.
As a result, the money supply (measured by M2) increased from about $7 trillion in 2008 to $22 trillion today, as the Fed responded to the global financial crisis with as much free money for zombie teams. Any property? no problem! They borrowed at low interest rates and failed.
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For a long time, on the surface, everything was fine. But the rot spreads beneath the surface. Investors held the stench as they waited for a conscious rally in the stock market.
Critics of the Fed have pointed to further increases in inflationary pressures in 2021, but the Fed has dismissed the increase as “temporary” as a result of supply changes due to the ongoing Covid pandemic.
Then came the day of reckoning. After years of high inflation, prices have risen. At the start of June 2022, inflation figures for May reached 8.6 percent, the largest increase in 40 years. Housing, food and gas contributed the most.
Economists believe that these prices are inflated to hide the real losses, and the real inflation is in the youth. If you want to think along these lines, check out the content at ShadowStates.
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American workers are now facing $5 and $6 gas prices, rising food prices, and double-digit housing costs. For many Americans, the increase quickly put an end to the tough paychecks of the past year, and for some, the past few years.
The lowest income (first and second quarter) is behind the latest inflation numbers by about 4 to 5 percent. These are the people who have the least ability to achieve.
The mood of the American electorate ranges from deeply concerned to angry and extroverted. For better or worse, American voters want to see action. They want inflation to stop at least yesterday.
However, incumbent Democrats see their chances of staying in power in the November 2022 midterm elections largely dependent on taking inflation seriously.
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President Biden has shown full confidence in the Fed's ability and willingness to begin fighting inflation that it will not be easy to modify this policy or face its wrath.
Still, Biden shrugged off any responsibility for the hike, placing the blame — and its future — squarely on the Fed. (Trump first and then Biden has nothing to do with it. Everyone knows the money raise is big. It will be interesting to see if voters buy this story in November).
Bottom line: The Fed has two reasons for raising interest rates: 1) to alienate the president and Congress, and 2) because they don't want to go down in the history books because the Fed is fueling further growth. swelling cycle
In the Fed's boardroom, the doves have turned to something new: inflation
