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But from the beginning, we've also been committed to supporting local artisans. We showcase their unique and passionately curated crafts online and in our Daya store. Each unique product is sourced locally from our artisan community of over 300 skilled manufacturers and artisans. We've all heard the expression “income is the mother's milk of stocks”. I believe Larry Kudlow coined the phrase. In fact, I have received comments on my articles saying that the only thing you need to know about investing in the stock market is the income.
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Bob Prechter researched this topic and came up with a very interesting market story that contradicts the common understanding of earnings: the myth of corporate earnings and stock prices.
Are stocks driven by corporate earnings? In June 1991, The Wall Street Journal reported on a study by Barry Wigmore of Goldman Sachs who “found that income and interest rates accounted for 35% of the rise in stock prices [in the 1990s]. 1980]”. Wigmore concludes that the rest is due to changing social attitudes about stock ownership. The magazine says, “[It] may have overthrown some of Wall Street's most cherished beliefs.” What about the earnings trend relative to the stock market? Since 1932, corporate profits have fallen in 19 years. During each of those 14 years, the Dow rose. Between 1973 and 1974, the Dow fell 46% while earnings rose 47%. 12-month earnings fell to support market lows. Stocks are not driven by earnings. Profits do not affect stock prices. We've said it a thousand times and shown the story that proves the point time and time again. But that doesn't mean income isn't an issue. As earnings provide investors with growing confidence, they can be a strong backdrop for a fall in stock prices. As the chart shows, this was certainly true in 2000. Maximum gains matched the stock market's all-time highs and remained strong through the third quarter before finally succumbing to a bear market in stock prices. Investors who bought stocks based on strong earnings (a rising earnings trend) were killed.
If Bob describes exactly how the returns are strongest at the top of the market, what forces income seekers to become buyers on market highs, what do the returns tell us about market lows?
Let's start by looking at some of the best buying opportunities in recent history. For example, in March 2009, results showed that now is the best time to buy in the market? How about March 2020? Do the results say now is a great time to buy the market?
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Clearly, those two times were some of the best buying opportunities we've seen in the last 13 years, but the earnings and the estimates were poor. In fact, it took a major rally in the market before gains started to come back.
While you may be scratching your head over the facts and reality of earnings, let's take a look at why this is so. I've written about this before, so I'm reposting it here:
During a negative sentiment trend, the market drops and the news appears to be deteriorating. When negative sentiment reaches extreme levels, it is time to reverse the sentiment and the audience subconsciously becomes more positive. After hitting a wall, it's clear it's time to look the other way. While some may question how emotion changes in intensity, I will explain to you that there are many published studies that explain how this occurs naturally in our brain's limbic system. When people become subconsciously positive about their future (which is a subconscious – not conscious – response from their limbic system, as recent market research has shown), they are willing to take risks. What is the most immediate way for the public to act to restore positive sentiment? The easiest and fastest way is to buy stocks. Therefore, we see the stock market moving in the opposite direction before the economy and fundamentals change. In fact, we have historically known that the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy, because the market has always moved well ahead of the economy. This is why R. N. Elliott believed that the stock market was the best barometer of public sentiment, leading to the Elliott Wave Theory. The most recent example of this was reported in the heart of the SPX rally, which dropped below 2,200 SPX and nearly doubled despite the worst news of COVID deaths, record unemployment and economic shutdowns. bottom And yet economists still see us in a recession! You understand what I want to say? (This was written after the S&P500 was already up 1,500 points from its March 2020 low). Let's see what effect that same positive mood swing has on fundamentals. When public sentiment turns positive, this is the stage where they are willing to take more risks based on their positive feelings about the future. Investors put money to work immediately in the stock market, thus having an immediate impact on stock prices, while entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs seek loans to build or expand businesses that take time to secure. They put their newly acquired money to work on their business, hiring more people or buying extra equipment that takes more time. With this new capability they will be able to provide more goods and services to the public and eventually profits and revenues will start to grow – after a long period of time. By the time news of such improved earnings finally hits the market, most market participants will have already seen the company's shares rise sharply as investors capitalize on their positive sentiment by buying the stock before any evidence of positive fundamentals emerges. Therefore, many believe that stock prices provide a discounted value of future earnings. Obviously, there is a significant delay between a positive turn in public sentiment and a positive change in the underlying fundamentals of a stock or economy, especially compared to the more immediate stock-buying activity that results from the same causal fundamental change in sentiment. So I would say that fundamentals are a lagging indicator of market sentiment. This delay is a more plausible reason why the stock market is a leading indicator, contrary to the omniscience of some investors. Since earnings are the last link in the chain of positive sentiment effects on the business growth cycle, this also provides a plausible reason for earnings to lag behind stock prices. As a result, analysts who try to predict stock prices based on earnings fail miserably in market reversals. While a shift in social sentiment will affect earnings, the trend in social sentiment has been negative for some time. This is why economists fail too – the social climate has changed well before they see evidence of it in their “indicators”. In fact, I want to ask again: aren't we technically still in a recession?
As you can imagine, even if the revenue projections you use are correct, you will likely be holding the bag during big market swings. But are the return predictions you're investing in reliable?
Art] Jastria Urimenor, Me, 2021
David Drayman, an Ontario investor, found that the majority (59%) of Wall Street consensus forecasts miss targets because of gaps so large that the results are worthless – either under or over the actual.