(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 2009 Answers – The price of oil has doubled from a year ago and the amount of Russian oil reaching international refineries could increase even more. This is the first of a two-part series on what these events could mean for the US economy. Today I’m focusing on the implications for inflation, and I’ll discuss the implications for real domestic product in a later post.
Before there were any signs that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine, oil prices had already risen sharply. The factors behind past recoveries are similar to those behind other price increases: demand has recovered faster than production.
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The figure below shows estimates of monthly gasoline consumption in the United States. The normal seasonal pattern has been severely disrupted by Covid. However, US gasoline consumption in December rebounded to December 2019. Absent a significant increase in gasoline prices, I expect a significant increase in gasoline demand this spring and summer.
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Monthly U.S. production in thousand barrels of expired motor gasoline from January 2000 to December 2021.
A similar pattern appears in estimates based on road vehicle counts of miles driven by Americans. This shows an increase of 2.5 percent compared to two years ago.
While demand may have returned to pre-Covid levels, supply has not. Even before any developments in Ukraine, November global crude oil production was 3.3 mb/d below early 2020 levels.
World crude oil field production, thousands of barrels per day, monthly, from January 1973 to November 2021. Source: EIA. A horizontal line is drawn for January 2020.
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The US supplied one-sixth of the world’s crude oil before Covid, but accounts for one-third of today’s global deficit compared to pre-Covid. US production is still below 1 mb/d in early 2020.
U.S.A. Crude oil field production, thousands of barrels per day, monthly, from January 1973 to November 2021. Source: EIA. A horizontal line is drawn for January 2020.
A big part of the story is that it’s easier to destroy something than to put it back together. In the year Negative oil prices in April 2020 put an end to enthusiasm for US shale oil production, followed by a collapse in credit and drilling. High oil prices mean slowly but steadily more resources. This process will continue even if prices are not over a hundred dollars recently, but it will take time. Perhaps by the end of summer, US production will return to where it was in early 2020.
Demand is growing faster than supply, driving up oil prices. Some economists argue that this does not necessarily mean more inflation. If a rise in the dollar price of oil is matched by a fall in the dollar price of other goods or services, we should not generally see inflation. But in practice, it often takes extraordinary events to cause the prices of many goods and services to fall. If the price of oil increases and other prices do not decrease, this means general inflation. As a result, it is useful to consider a counterfactual calculation of what inflation would have been if the dollar’s oil price had risen but the dollar’s value had remained unchanged. Inflation.
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In the year In 2019, US crude oil production and imports had a market value of about 2% of GDP. If this suggests a quick-and-dirty rule, what kind of question would it be to find an approximate answer to the above? If we multiply the change in the price of crude oil by 0.02 percent, the change in the price of crude oil alone should give us a rough idea of what inflation would be. This is consistent with the rule of thumb used by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that a $10 increase in oil prices (a 10% increase in current prices) results in a 0.2% increase in inflation.
I used the estimate in the figure below to calculate the direct contribution of oil prices to US inflation each month since 1960. A quick calculation shows that it contributed two percentage points to inflation in 1974 (after the OPEC oil embargo) and 1980 (after the OPEC oil embargo). after the Iranian revolution). Oil contributed 2.6 percentage points to US inflation in the 12 months ending in April 2021.
US CPI natural log 100-fold year-over-year change (in black) and 2-year dollar log of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices (in blue) monthly, January 1960 to February 2022.
In the year In the 1970s, the contribution of oil in blue is an increasing function – it increases when the price of oil rises, but returns to zero when the price of oil stops rising. But actual inflation did not follow a downward spiraling growth function. Instead, with each rise in oil prices, inflation seems to rise to a new high. In the year Monetary policy in the 1970s confirmed what could have been temporary inflation and turned them into persistent trends. Two indicators of errors in monetary policy are shown in the figure below. The top panel shows the real interest rate calculated as the difference between the nominal money supply set by the Federal Reserve and year-over-year inflation as measured by the CPI. According to policy prescriptions, such as that proposed by John Taylor, the real interest rate shown here should rise when inflation rises to bring inflation down to a lower target value. Largely negative real interest rates throughout much of the 1970s were an indication that the Fed was overextending. The bottom panel provides another indicator that shows the growth rate of the money supply as measured by M2. The rise in monetary growth was accompanied by two increases in oil prices in the 1970s, which contributed to general and sustained inflation.
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Top panel: Nominal money supply is shown per month as a 100-fold decrease in the logarithmic change in the CPI over the past 12 months. Bottom panel: 100 times annual change in logarithm of M2.
Both of these indicators send a clear signal that the Fed overspent last year.
The Fed’s view is that last year’s price hike was a temporary supply problem, as I cited the development of the oil market as an example. They hoped (as I did) that we would see significant progress on these supply challenges in the coming months. That hope comes as the year unfolds, prompting the Fed’s plan to gradually take off the pace.
But given the sorry state of affairs in Europe, supply problems are likely to get worse before they get better. And that makes the Fed’s job even harder. A few years ago I learned that the Oxford Junior Dictionary had decided to remove over 100 nature words from its pages – common words like apricot, lavender and hell. Producers no longer thought they were relevant to today’s children.
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First I am angry, then disappointed and finally very sad. But the power of writing is that you can create the world you want to see. I decided to write a book where some of these lost wild words would be celebrated and known beyond the dictionary pages. To ensure that they remain an integral part of our language and our children’s stories.
Nature has always been an important part of my life, and so has my daughter, Mimi. We are fortunate to grow on our property in Bend, Oregon, where many of these wild words are found naturally. I wanted to write a book that would help kids everywhere experience the beauty of nature and what it’s like to hike and explore.
I also wanted to write it from the perspective of a grandmother and her granddaughter. why? Grandparents play such a special role in children’s lives. My father was a rock in my son’s upbringing. When she was very young he gave her a nature bag and the two of them would go down our long path and explore for hours. His patience with her was such a gift and watching them together was one of my favorite parts of her childhood.
It is absurd to think that nature can be completely out of touch with children. In fact, in the technology-filled world we live in today,