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(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 2116 Answers – Golar LNG (NASDAQ:GLNG) is a “value case in a growth industry.” This is the title chosen by GLNG management in a recent conference presentation. I couldn’t agree more. The key driver going forward is cash flow generation. Now that we’ve finally reached that critical tipping point (the production of capital increases after a multi-year growth capital plan), stock prices are at multi-year lows.
Why all this pessimism? I suspect it has to do with the normal description. GLNG fell again on negative energy sentiment (falling oil and LNG prices etc.). In fact, share prices are at levels not seen since the 2015/16 “energy crash”. This is significantly less than at the beginning of 2014 (about 70% less). However, GLNG is in much if not better shape than it was back then. The beginning of 2014 is not a random date. The graphic below says it all:
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In 2014, GLNG’s diluted net income was less than $1 billion, yet its share price has nearly tripled. Since then, contract revenue has grown to more than $5.7 billion while its stock price has fallen nearly 70%. Furthermore, despite all the heavy investments (over $4.5 billion) in growth projects since 2014, the ratio has not increased significantly (taking into account the expected increase in cash flow, etc.), as can be seen in the yellow highlighted part of the table below . Source: 20-F
The Auburn Plainsman
In the third quarter of 2019, 101.3 million shares were still outstanding (as at the end of 2018), including 3M shares underlying the TRS (Total Return Swap). GLNG Share Count Declines In Q4 2019, GLNG agreed to purchase 1.5 million shares of the underlying 3 million shares of TRS and the remaining 1.5 million shares are scheduled to be purchased in Q1 2020. Next, 98.3 million shares will be outstanding. This is important as GLNG’s per-share metrics continue to rise, but the stock price is falling.
It’s also reasonable to assume that going forward, GLNG won’t experience negative operating cash flow (shown in the green-highlighted section in the chart above) as growth contracts finally come online and generate predictable cash flow.
Ultimately, I believe the market will appreciate GLNG’s highly diluted earnings surplus, which will potentially translate into over $600 million in highly predictable annualized EBITDA if all else holds steady, as illustrated in the chart below. Note that the discount is backed by multiple long-term contracts (lasting over 20 years). That’s a lot of money for a company of GLNG’s current size and market cap (under $1.3 billion).
Note: Shipping EBITDA is based on a TCE rate of $44,000 per day (each $10,000 increase in TCE represents a ~$40M increase in EBITDA).
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Also note that the contract term excludes a ~$37 million annual distribution from Golar LNG Partners (GMLP). I mention this because it is not clear what GLNG will do with GMLP. One thing is for sure. The GLNG-GMLP-MLP model is not performing well in its current form. GMLP is fixed in a way. Interestingly, GMLP bought a few units here and there to take advantage of the sky-high payout yield (without raising additional equity) and improve the payout ratio. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the balance sheet (upcoming maturity), which could lead to payout cuts, as noted by Evercore ISI in its recent downgrade. In any event, options include mergers, outright sales, mergers with other companies, etc. A few days ago, TradeWinds listed GMLP’s SEC filing as “from time to time” selling 21.2 million units owned by GLNG. Let’s see what’s up.
Coming back to the EBITDA discussion, much of the annual EBITDA run rate mentioned above will come from the FLNG Gimi project, which will start in December 2022. Some may think three years is too far. I find that a little tricky, especially since GLNG doesn’t rely solely on that contract (more on that below). FLNG Gimi aims to change that and sign a 20-year contract with BP Note: This project will be funded entirely by committed bank financing and available cash.
FLNG Healy is already generating cash flow and a significant portion (over $100M per year) is coming online now, as of January 2020. Specifically:
It is important to note that the above growth projects (over $4.5 billion in total capital) relate to LNG infrastructure projects and not ships. Nonetheless, GLNG is classified/considered as a volatile shipping company that has virtually no credit for long-term infrastructure-related excess profits.
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Perhaps that perception is changing as GLNG appears to be “evaluating offers from infrastructure funds looking to invest in contract revenue,” as stated in its third-quarter 2019 earnings presentation, slide 11.
Another reason for this shift in perception is GLNG’s plan to convert its shipping business into a separate vehicle. There has been some delay (due to disagreements between the founders of the proposed new company) but is expected to be completed in 2020, possibly by direct registration. The result will reduce revenue volatility and also eliminate $1.0 billion of debt related to the TFDE fleet. Optics are important and this step will definitely help.
The future is all about generating cash flow. Investing in GLNG means investing in the LNG infrastructure business and providing clean and cheap fuel. This segment is supported by very long-term, mostly fixed-interest contracts with major counterparties. This cash flow visibility gives GLNG more flexibility to fund new projects and return cash to shareholders, ultimately earning higher premiums. After the fleet turns around (hopefully sooner rather than later), GLNG will no longer be tied to exposed shipping, leading to volatility in revenue. In addition, $1 billion in loans related to the TFDE fleet will be written off the books.
Golar Nanook and Sergip power contracts (both 25-year terms) with annual sales in excess of $100 million as of January 2020 mark a turning point in cash flow growth. In other words, a lot of cash flow is coming online now and we don’t have to wait any longer. It’s not like 2014 when things were still uncertain. In fact, the revenue surplus is up $5.7 billion since 2014, and the share has stayed more or less the same.
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As a result, per-share metrics will rise as growth projects come online. Markets generally think ahead. A arrears of at least $7 billion will eventually show up on the balance sheet. The market will finally have a moment of awakening. GLNG is a completely different and much better company than it was many years ago. Implementation risk has historically been the primary concern. The deal and the associated cash flows will speak for themselves going forward.
Disclosure: I/We have been GLNG for a long time. I wrote this article myself and it expresses my own opinion. I will not be compensated for this (other than finding alpha). I am not affiliated with anyone whose shares are mentioned in this article.
If you have an ad blocker enabled, you may be prevented from proceeding. Please disable your ad blocker and update it. This is a follow-up to a post I posted in late September after catching up on the last half hour of the 3rd IEEE Symposium on Metaverse. The IEEE, the Institute of Electronics and Electrical Engineers, dates back to 1884. Their first technical meeting, chiefly on telegraphs, was held in Philadelphia in the fall of that year.
Last June, the IEEE released the Global Initiative on Ethics in Extended Reality Report: The Metaverse and Its Governance and hosted the first in a series of webinars called the Metaverse Congress. I found out about the series and caught the tail of the third. You can watch a recording of it here.
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They must have put me on their email list because I received an automated message for the fifth session. They alternated between English and Chinese and the fourth was Chinese. I wasn’t sure it was worth taking the time to watch, but when the reminder came I logged on and found I was the only non-attendant. Unbelievable. So I stuck it out for three hours and one screen recorded most of it. Unfortunately, the last half hour or so falls flat. During the comparison, Mr. Coughlin asserted that a permanent record of our lives would make us better people and more understandable to others. At the end, Yu Yuan said that he believes we are already in the simulation and that his personal goal is to create a very high quality technical version.
I’m not sure how I ended up talking to the father of wearable computing, the grandfather of virtual reality, the future president of the IEEE and the head of their standards organization, let alone professors.
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