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(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 2850 Answers – Bear markets are a great reminder of what’s important. Not talk, not speculative mania, but real, tangible fundamentals like secure dividends, cash flow and strong balance sheets.
You know what’s better than safe and growing dividends to keep you safe and sound in a bear market? High yield guarantee paid monthly.
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Nothing helps pay the monthly bills like a monthly dividend, and nothing helps turbocharge dividend reinvestment like a bear market.
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Today I’m going to highlight three reasons why Main Street Capital (NYSE: MAIN ), one of the best monthly high-yielding blue chips in the world, is one of the best monthly high-yielding blue chips in the world. profit from this bear market.
Not because it can double in the next five years, but because it can help you achieve life-changing wealth and income that could be the answer to your dreams of a wealthy retirement.
MAIN lends to small businesses that the big banks don’t want to lend to (because of the strict rules they followed after the GFC).
They typically lend to companies with annual sales of $10 million to $150 million and annual cash flow of $3 million to $20 million.
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There are roughly 200,000 lower middle market, or LMM, companies in the U.S. that MAIN invests in its clients’ debt and equity, typically valued at just 5.5 times cash flow.
MAIN’s total portfolio consists of 191 loans, each averaging $17.2 million and yielding 9.4 percent. The largest is 2.8% of the portfolio and most are below 1%.
KEY Credit Rating Agencies Credit Rating 30 Year Default/Bankruptcy Risk 100% Chance to Lose Investment 1 S&P BBB- Stable Outlook 11% 9.1 Fitch BBB- Stable Outlook 11% 9.1 Consensus BBB- Stable Outlook 191% Click. expansion
If the Fed hikes to 4.5% (plan), MAIN estimates that income/share of its net investments will increase by $0.35 (11%).
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Unlike many BDCs, MAIN never cut its dividend in two of the worst recessions in US history.
And unlike most BDCs in increasing book value/capital (due to conflicts of interest with outside management), MAIN has grown its book value by 5% per year over the past 15 years.
It costs a BASIC of 1.5% of annual assets to operate, about half the cost of externally managed BDCs (internal management is more efficient) and less than most commercial banks.
The CEO and Chief Investment Officer are co-founders of the company, and its General Counsel has been with them since the Great Recession.
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MAIN is similar to BDC BRK, consistently providing better dividend safety, more stable growth and better NAV/share growth.
Saving money on a file appraisal is a smart decision. Why did they raise money in a bear market recession?
Top Reasons to Buy Today Metric Main Street Equity Quality 88% 11/13 Quality SWAN (Sleep Well at Night) Dividend Risk Score Half Risk Average PK Main List Quality Score (of 500 Companies) 130 Quality Percent 74% Dividend Growth (years) ) 11 Dividend Yield 7.5% (paid monthly) Dividend Safety Score 73% Moderate Recession Dividend Cut Risk 1.0% Severe Recession Dividend Cut Risk 2.70% S&P Credit Rating BBB- 30 Year Bankruptcy Risk Stable S1LTu0M0 Current S1LTu0M0 Price $35.10 Discount to Fair Value 22% DK Rating Potential Good Buy PE 11.0 Growth 1.3% Historical PE 15 to 15.5 LT. 13% to 20% CAGR Base Case 5-Year Consensus Potential Return 18% CAGR (2.5x S&P 500) Consensus 12-Month Potential Total Return 27% 12-Month Basis-Based Return Potential 35% LT Consensus Potential Total Return 155. % Potential consensus return LT adjusted for inflation 13.2% Potential total return adjusted for inflation 10 years (no valuation) 3.46 LT expected risk adjusted return 9.66% LT37% double loss. 9.77 Click to enlarge
MAIN trades at just 11X earnings, a historical discount of 22%, a secure yield of 7.5% (paid monthly) and an attractive short- to medium-term income potential.
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PRINCIPAL offers the potential for an annual return of 39% by the end of next year if it grows as expected and returns to historical fair value.
If MAIN grows as expected and returns to fair value by 2025, it could double with an annual yield of 18%.
MAIN is a potentially high monthly dividend opportunity for anyone who fits their risk profile. See how it compares to the S&P 500.
Metrics 2021 Growth 2022 Consensus Growth 2023 Consensus Growth (recession year) Sales 188% -9% 10% Dividend 4% 9% 1% Earnings 26% 14% 6% EBITDA 510% NA EBO 2% Book Income3% Click for magnification
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After a 20% drop in the pandemic, MAIN’s earnings fully recovered in 2021 and are now at record levels. Analysts expect another record year next year, even with a mild recession.
The historical smoothing error bounds for breakout analysts are 5% lower and 10% higher.
Investment Strategy LT Consensus Returns Growth Consensus LT Consensus Total Return Potential Long-Term Return Expected Long-Term Inflation-Adjusted Risk and Expected Risk-Adjusted Year Double Your Inflation-Adjusted Risk and Wealth in a Year 10.% Street Equity 7.00% 8.50% 8.5 % 8.5% 8.5% 8.0% % 8.4 2.28 Safe mean flow 6.1% 6.4% 12.5% 8.8% 6.5% 11.1 1.87 10 -year US Treasury 4010.0.7.7% 126.96.36.199% US equity 2.3% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% % % 14.6 1.62 Nasdaq 0.8% 11.5% 12.3% 8.6% 6.3 % 11.4 1.85 Click to enlarge
MAIN has the potential to outperform most popular investment strategies. Not just high yield, the S&P, the Aristocrats and even the Nasdaq.
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Inflation-Adjusted Gift: $1,000 Initial Investment Term (Years) S & P 500 Consensus 9.2% Aristocratic Consensus 13.2% MAGR $ $ $3,449.05 $3,824.05 $5,001.35 $7,001.35 $349, 02 25 $6,832.64 $9,048.16 $22,337.66 $15,505.02 30 $10,034.74 $14,056.34 $41,576.24 $31,501 Click .
Analysts believe MAIN could potentially generate 42X earnings over the next 30 years. Even if it grows as expected over the next 10 years, completely ignoring valuation, this is a 3.5X return adjusted for inflation.
Time Frame (Years) Inflation-adjusted BASE Consensus Ratio/Aristocrat Consensus Inflation-adjusted Consensus Ratio vs. S&P Consensus 5 1.20 1.27 10 1.44 1.61 15 1.72 2.04 02567
For 15 years, millions of income investors have consistently paid 15 to 15.5 times earnings for MAIN outside of bear markets and bubbles.
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Historical Metrics Fair Value Multiple (Full Year) 2021 2022 2023 2024 12-Month Forward Fair Value 5-Year Average Return 6.09% $41.87 $43.35 $43.35 NA 13-Year Average Return 6.19% PE 6.19% 6.19% PE 6.19% $2.06 % PE 6. $44.88 AT $44.76 Strike Price 14.84% 20.79% 20.42% 522% 2022 EP 20-2 Leg Average Average Fair Value Forward PE Current Forward PE $3.04 $3.21 $0. 47 $2.72 $1.47 $2.72 Click 31 $1.
Given historical dividend yields, I conservatively estimate that MAIN is historically worth 14X earnings, trading at just 11X today.
Medium Risk 11/13 SWAN Rating Margin of Safety for Company Quality 2022 Fair Price 2023 Fair Value 12 Months Forward Average Fair Value 0% $44.13 $44.88 $44.76 Potential Good $530.1 $530.1 $530.1 Potential $530.1$ $530.1$ Potential $530.1$ $530.1$ Potential $530.1$ Potential $3.0.9 $3.0. Buy Strong 45% $24.27 $24.68 $24.62 Now $35.10 20.46% 21.79% 20.46% 21.79% 83.53% Click
No company is without risk and no company is right for everyone. You should be satisfied with the basic risk profile.
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How can we identify, track and monitor such a complex risk profile? Doing what big institutions do.
DK’s risk rating is based on a global percentage of the company’s risk management level compared to 8,000 S&P companies representing 90% of the world’s stock market capitalization.
MAIN’s long-term risk management ranks 381st on the main list (24 percent on the main list)
Average Consensus Score LT Industry Risk Management Rating Risk Management Rate British American Tobacco (BTI) #1 Primary Risk Management List 100 Outstanding Linked to S&P Global (SPGI) #1 100 Foreign Dividend Outstanding 76 Good Good 73 Good ESG Ultra SWANs 70 Good Low Volatile Stocks 68 Above Average Dividend Aristocrats 67 Above Average Dividend Kings 63 Above Average Core List Average 62 Above Average Hyper Growth Stock 61 Above Average Monthly 60 A Cap A Stock Above Average Main Street Capital , Below Average Expand Capital 38
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MAIN’s risk management consensus ranks it in the bottom 24% of the world’s top quality companies, as well as other blue chips.
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