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(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 2771 Answers – Arguing Tesla’s ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock price based on fundamentals is as meaningless as arguing Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups are based on nutritional value. There is a huge demand for the stock and it is completely blocked from the fundamentals and there is nothing to go around at this time.
As James Mackintosh wrote this week in The Wall Street Journal, “Just look at Tesla and it’s clear that the stock market is in the midst of a speculative frenzy.”
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I recently received a message from an Italian friend talking about Tesla’s share price performance. Translated it says:
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Sometimes people’s stupidity and stupidity have no limits. We know this. Researching Tesla has become almost impossible. There are better things to do.
Is true. The focus of my reading and thinking has shifted from Tesla (and soon my writing may as well). Tesla is paradigmatic of the mania in the markets that was driven by financial deregulation and monetary policy that has never happened in scale and is characterized by unpleasant results.
That being said, there are times when things matter. Unless they get really stupid, the Tesla investors (and I use that term loosely) buying TSLA at stratospheric prices will one day wake up to the fact that the stock will never pay them a dime in shares or dividends, and that the EV world has. he took Tesla.
I want to write a little about Tesla’s Brandenburg factory. But before I finished the document, Alpha’s Quest for Jaberwock Research was thorough and comprehensive and covered all the worlds I had hoped to cover, and more.
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Although there is still ambiguity in the documents, it seems that the Brandenburg plant will be much smaller than originally announced. One of the questions raised by Jaberwock Research is, with Germany’s high cost of labor and electricity, and its strong bureaucracy, “Why build a Brandenburg factory at all?”
(Tesla’s impressive rendering of the Brandenburg factory reminds us that while its manufacturing capabilities may leave much to be desired, its imaging capabilities are second to none.)
The explanation from the car industry is that if Tesla hopes to remain competitive in Europe, it must have a European factory to avoid potential tax problems and eliminate shipping costs from Fremont to Zeebrugge. In addition, EU regulations ensure that the European electric vehicle market will continue to grow. It is important to the story of Tesla’s growth that Tesla has a European plant.
Ultimately, though, it’s reality to deal with. The reality is that Tesla is getting hammered in Europe while other OEMs are introducing new and compelling EV offerings. For a taste, check out this Polestar 2 review.
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As Jaberwock pointed out, Tesla has stabilized the European Model 3 at less than 20,000 cars per quarter. By the end of 2020, approximately 30 EV models will be introduced in Europe, and another 50 will be launched in the next two years. Does the Model Y better Tesla’s numbers than anything similar going forward? I doubt it; The Model Y order book, about which Tesla remains tight-lipped, may be small, and in any case the Model Y will significantly cannibalize Model 3 demand.
Historically, the third month of the fourth year saw the largest number of deliveries of Tesla in Europe. We now have the June figures for German electric car sales (including electric cars and PHEVs).
In the world where Tesla is based, Tesla delivered a total of 703 Model 3s, which accounted for 3.7% of the EV and PHEV market:
And before this Volkswagen ID.3 has arrived (its debut, now scheduled for September, has been delayed due to the embarrassment of the program, and I’m in I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-see) . mode).
The East Carolinian, November 10, 2005
The jump in the number of shipments for June is not only the demand for the durability of the Model 3, but also the special desire for PHEVs (which, in my opinion and that of many others, makes a lot of sense from an environmental point of view). This is not surprising; The EU regime is more generous towards PHEVs than, for example, California’s ZEV regime, and many Europeans do not have garages where they can charge their cars.
In the next few years, Europe will be hemorrhaging electric car manufacturers, with more supply than demand. It’s hard to imagine any OEM benefiting from selling electric cars. If you doubt that the European EV market is too competitive, with competitive pressure to continue building until 2022, I encourage you to ask Jaberwock for a good review.
But as Jaberwock notes (and many have noted before him), for all OEMs except Tesla, selling EVs, even at a loss, allows the OEM to enjoy a profit on its conventional vehicles.
Tesla bulls are getting tired of hearing it, but Norway is the canary in the Tesla coal mine in Europe. There is a huge market for electric cars, where electric cars are more expensive than ICE cars. In recent years, Tesla has dominated the Norwegian market for luxury cars. However, the arrival of capable competition combined with Tesla’s risk of not spending on workplace infrastructure and its much-publicized reliability issues led to a complete collapse in Tesla’s market:
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I think we will see this story of declining demand play out in market after market across Europe, even as Tesla continues to lower prices.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s US demand is below 50,000 vehicles per quarter, while Fremont’s capacity has doubled. With Shanghai and Brandenburg taking up large parts of the demand, Fremont (which produced 368,000 vehicles out of 368,000) will be doomed to permanent incapacity and therefore unable to absorb SG&A costs.
However, Tesla is continuing to build in Brandenburg. Official plans call for production to begin before the end of next year. However, some parts of the plant on sandy soil require sunken piles. Tesla still does not have permission to drill these piles, and according to German reports, they need to clear environmental objections before doing so. Therefore, the idea that Brandenburg will start phasing out cars before the end of 2021 seems doubtful.
Regardless of when Brandenburg production starts, the factory will be on a reduced scale. As Jaberwock said, the Brandenburg plant will not involve cell manufacturing or battery assembly. Pieces of plastic will no longer be produced locally. So where will the batteries and plastic bits come from?
Times Leader 12 12 2011
My former colleague, MaxedOutMama, believes (and I agree) that these items must have come from China. Batteries from Shanghai will probably cost less than those made in Sparks. The export of such high-quality components will also largely satisfy Tesla Shanghai’s annual revenue requirement in 2023, determined in the December 12, 2018 aid agreement, of RMB 75 billion ($10.5 billion).
In fact, don’t be surprised if (as expected by MaxedOutMama) Tesla’s “Battery Day” (currently scheduled for September 22nd) is about Chinese cell innovations (which will be enjoyed by all CATL customers, not just Tesla).
So in an important way, the Brandenburg factory, important for Tesla if it wants to take advantage of the growing European EV market (growth forced by EU mandates), is nevertheless dangerous for Tesla because of the tsunami of discouraging competition that is coming, and the sign. from Tesla. The deep inability to use ICE to offset EV losses will further cement Tesla’s greatness in Shanghai as the global center of Tesla’s operations.
About six months ago, Tesla’s CEO asked his Twitter followers to vote on whether they should build the so-called Cybertruck in Texas.
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Although it appears that Elon Musk still wants to leave California and close the Fremont factory, Tesla has not yet purchased the Travis County, Texas factory that appeared in his tax filing.
So far, Tesla has received $14.7 million in tax dollars from Travis County and another $46.4 million from the school district. These tax credits are spread over ten years. Considering the billions that Tesla has collected in direct and indirect subsidies, the tax credits of 6 million per year are insignificant. Tesla is likely to be seeking more support from other countries and local governments.
Will Tesla continue the factory in Texas? Planning is big, the history of growth is decisive. And the Texas factory would provide a practical explanation for why the next round of capital raising is needed.
As a side note, Tesla said it will build the Cybertruck and Model Y in Texas. It now builds the Model Y in Fremont, and will begin building that car in Shanghai by the end of the year. Tesla also promised to build the Model Y in Brandenburg. Will Tesla build the Model Y in four different factories? No, it will likely close before Fremont begins production of the Model Y at the Texas plant.
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As widely reported, Tesla would be eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 if it achieved GAAP profit in Q2. We will know tomorrow after business hours if Tesla reports such a profit.
I expect Tesla to report Q2 GAAP earnings. And I expect the benefit to be the result of
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