(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 429 Answers – Okay, I’ll admit it, I’ve screwed up more than my fair share of investors that I’m talking to right now. They believe that stocks will not go down. Sure, there was a taste of what the downturn might look like because of the covid issue, but it was so short-lived that it didn’t register on the BEAR marketing seismograph. It struck quickly without shock.
When that “event” is not there, we can return to reality and express ourselves clearly. Given the long time it takes investors in the US and around the world to experience any kind of market selloff, the next time we see a correction will be very painful, and the time has come. The S&P has been trading in what can only be described as volatile volatility, at levels similar to last July. New highs are mixed with several tests of medium-term support levels. With the Fed in the picture, it’s no secret why I predict that 2022 will be an action with great volatility.
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The macro landscape has changed significantly since the FOMC held its last meeting for 2021 last month. At that meeting, the average FOMC dot chart for 2022 showed three increases; Last year, no increase was expected until 2024! The background has changed a lot, and so have market prices.
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The evolution of value in relation to growth is remarkable. Although the Fed is not responsible for all market movements, I find it hard to believe that the Fed is fighting new inflation and falling in the most important part of the markets are not consistent.
After not being seen as a risk to the markets and adding to the tail, the Fed now has headwinds. Unfortunately, this was something I became very concerned about when inflation started to rise and there seemed to be no end to stimulus spending. For now, only the most aggressive sectors are bearing the brunt of the selloff, but investors are starting to wonder if the damage will be more widespread in the coming months.
Calm markets often follow a challenging situation for investors. While we’ve seen the S&P’s broad trading range over the past three months settle into a volatile swing, it’s over now. Investor sentiment will drive the market based on the headline, and it remains to be seen how the “dirty” team will deal with volatility. If you look at the price action this week, they are not doing well.
Ladies and gentlemen, the stock market is the best thing I know and now keep an eye on what’s going on with inflation, interest rates, Russia, China, political turmoil and finally profits. When emotions enter the room, the situation becomes unpredictable.
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Entering a short trading week, the S&P saw its fourth straight retreat heading into the reporting period. We’ve had some pullbacks for the past three earnings (March 2021 due to cold weather fears, June 2021 delta fears, September 2021 supply chain fears) with gains up to ~2.5%-4.5%. The expectation of the results has increased significantly as these results are shown during the season.
4Q21 is no different, with the Omicron merger and rate scare causing a ~3.5% drop in shares since early January before earnings. After a long weekend, the trading week did not get off to a good start as the jittery market sold off quickly on Tuesday. Damage was across the board, with the S&P shedding 1.8% in a negative 9:1 spread amid major failures in tech and financials. WTI hit a seven-year high and crossed the $85 level, while the 10-year Treasury hit 1.89%.
Wednesday brought further losses as all rally attempts were sold off. The S&P’s two-day loss was 2.6% at the close of trade. The Nasdaq Composite moved into the official correction zone (-10.6%) and joined the Russell 2000, which ended the day down 15+% from its highs.
All return gatherings on Thursday and Friday were destroyed. All indexes posted their third straight week of losses except the NASDAQ Composite, which fell for four straight weeks. The S & P ended the week down 7.7% on the year.
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Population movements in America will affect long-term economic growth. The number of people traveling between US states has doubled during this pandemic compared to previous pandemics, and within states a dramatic shift from urban to suburban to rural is evident. Although 75% of out-of-state migration came from just three states (NY, CA, IL), migration varied greatly, not only with low taxes but also with a wide range in the Mountain West, northern New England, and the Southeast. Countries benefit in a meaningful way.
Within the country, there is a huge shift in both consumers and businesses from urban to urban to rural markets. These population movements will be important drivers of long-term trends in housing (homebuilders build exactly where people think they want to go), restaurants (heavy in the suburbs), banking and real estate in general.
The leading index rose 0.8% to 120.8 in December to another long period after rising 0.7% to 119.9 in November and 0.7% to 119.1 in October. This is it
And surprisingly, while the decline in the epidemic may not be surprising, the leaders did not post a monthly decline in 2021 and the last decline was recorded in April 2020.
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The NAHB stock market index fell 1 point to 83 in January, reversing a gain of 1 to 84 in December. It was the first drop in the builder’s confidence rating from a level of 5 to 75 in August. In January of last year, this definition was equal to 83. The current index for single-family homes remained unchanged at 90 for the second month in a row. The energy report cited higher material costs (including timber), which saw the average cost of residential building materials rise by almost 19% in the past 12 months. High loan interest rates and lack of qualified workers as well.
Home starts rose 1.4% to 1.7 million in December, much higher than expected, especially after an increase of 8.1% to 1.67 million in November and 0.1% to 1.55 million in October. Multi-power multifamily starts for the month increased by 10.6% to 0.53 million. Licenses rose 9.1% to 1.87 million after gaining 3.9% to 1.71 million in November. Overall, this is a very strong record.
Existing home sales are estimated to have fallen 4.6% in December from 6.49 million in November to a flat rate of 6.18 million, hit hard by strong supply. The housing stock fell
Only 0.91 million after falling to 1.11 million in November. The median price rose 1% to $358,000, below June’s all-time high.
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The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell -0.7 from 31.9 in December and 30.9 in November to a record 43.0 in July, seen as a major Omicron hedge and the first negative reading since June 2020. More mixed, the ISM-adjusted Empire State fell to the Empire State. still a respectable 54.1 from December’s 60.3.
It’s not clear if Empire’s headline will be a blip, or if December’s pullback from November’s highs will end in January.
The Philly Fed index rose to a solid 23.2 from a one-year low of 15.4 in December and hit a 7-month high of 39.0 in November, while the ISM-adjusted Philly Fed index rose to 5- the month’s low of 58.5 from 60.6 in December fell on the level with the 48-year high of 65.8 in November. The Philly Fed continues the Empire State case in January, delivering sustained neutrality from November’s strong levels in December and January.
Despite the headlines from Omicron, sentiment is still historically high. Producers benefited from higher prices despite rising input costs and the need to rebuild inventories in 2022 after renewed sales in 2021.
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I don’t believe in counting pressure on the political climate as a major risk to the long-term outlook of the markets. We have seen the war have a short-term effect, but in the long run the stock market continues to dictate the situation.
The situation between Russia and Ukraine is heating up again. You don’t need to go into all the details except to say that Russia has been building up troops on the Ukrainian border.
This situation could have an impact on crude oil and natural gas and could be an even bigger problem in the Eurozone.
UK Prime Minister Johnson has announced that all Covid restrictions will be lifted. As others eventually follow, it will help the world economy continue to recover.
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China’s GDP grew by 8.1% last year, beating many expectations. According to official data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, industrial production rose steadily towards the end of the year, offsetting the decline in retail sales.
Fourth-quarter gross domestic product increased 4% from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Statistics. That was faster than the 3.6% increase predicted by a Reuters poll.
As a general rule it is now clear that
