(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 2919 Answers – At Telehealth, an elderly couple asked me a difficult question about COVID19. They asked if the virus would disappear or not be dangerous in 6 months to a year.
Doctor, we have a large family with many children and grandchildren, many of whom live nearby. We miss them. We separated him, but he was strong; we did 6 weeks. Doing it for a year or more would not be good. We saw in the news today that the fight against this virus will be long. A man called him the new evil. So doctor, if you tell me that this virus will go away in a year or that there will be less risk of infection after that, then it makes sense to continue neutral. And if the situation is not very different in a year, we will see our family soon and take the risk. Of course, doc, we always have to be smart. If someone is sick, we will not visit him; We will wash our hands and wear masks.
(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 2919 Answers
In fact, my wife wonders if the land withdrawal policy saves lives. There are three other questions in this question: ie, in a year, will the virus 1) be gone, or 2) less contagious, or 3) less lethal? If any of these three are true, then my partner can reasonably decide not to marry for a year or more.
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I don’t think the reform laws will change any of these issues. Let me explain my thoughts. I could be wrong; Tell me if you disagree with the statement.
Now you know the famous bugs – which are the beginning of disease, and another interesting insect that spreads disease in time. The y-axis is the number of cases of COVID19.
In early March, there were reports of COVID19 from Wuhan, Iran, Lombardy and Spain, where the increase has burned hospitals. In the United States, cases of COVID have increased in New York City.
Death – those who could have been saved were not saved due to lack of ICU beds, dialysis equipment, staff and ventilators.
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Policies of public distraction and delay in selective health care are necessary to stop high mortality. These policies have given hospitals an opportunity to prepare for cases of COVID19 and for doctors to learn how to treat these patients effectively. Indication A: Patients do not apply quickly.
Social neutrality works. The number of cases has slowed in the US on the blue side of the system. But now, after a few months, the story has changed.
What was once designed to prevent more controlled hospitals was transformed into a design to save lives. Some compare the pleasure of social distancing to human sacrifice.
Change of context, I believe, is not good. I would argue that the total number of deaths from COVID19 will not be significantly reduced by the policy of pulling down. And that this virus will be dangerous for patients in 6 months to a year. We should be allowed to discuss this.
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First: the virus cannot be contained. The opportunity to catch fish is long gone. The virus spreads before people know they have it, and most patients do not develop symptoms. It will stay with us until effective vaccines are available and widely used. (See #6)
Second: The tests will be the best. High rates of asymptomatic disease, low sensitivity of PCR tests (false positives), lack of interpretation of antibody tests (false positives) and privacy concerns mean that we should expect less testing and participation – even from Nobel. Prizes will be awarded. Carl Bergstrom and others write in agreement about the main obstacles to pursuing a relationship in the United States.
Third: US hospitals are now prepared and at low risk. In fact, many hospitals fail so badly that they are close to bankruptcy. Health workers were fired for delaying their chosen jobs. I have spoken to many of my colleagues in the US and the message is clear: hospitals have capacity and are preparing for a “fixed number” of COVID19 cases in the coming months/years. Hospitals now have COVID response teams.
Fourth: Americans are not stupid. The NBA, MBL, NHL suspended their seasons and canceled medical notices before the governor imposed a lockdown, slowing economic activity and travel. People don’t communicate because they have the police, but because it makes sense. News organizations click pictures of water in Florida and crazy people with guns in the state capital but most smart people in this country are lying.
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Fifth: Public health surveillance is improving. These tests may be few but they will not be in vain. The test will help determine the location of the fire and allow the city to take action in the area. Other technologies may emerge to help prevent overcrowding. A good example is the use of a relaxation trust tool that can be shown to medical personnel first.
Sixth: (I need a few paragraphs): Social distancing will not reduce the death rate of the disease or IFR. Do you remember the red and blue flowers? The y-axis in the graph is the disease rate. Due to the spread of this virus, it is possible that the area under these covers will be the same at the end of two years. Well, then, if the number of cases is the same in two years, the number of deaths together will not change.
The only way fewer people will die from COVID19 over time is if the IFR decreases. This is a uniquely American place that deceives people. Politicians have a strong tendency to inject optimism into any possible health improvement – no matter how dubious. (Show B-hydroxychloroquine.)
Medicines don’t work like that. History is full of examples of difficult drug development. But aside from the challenge of developing new drugs against new viruses, the basic math of COVID19 creates a major obstacle to success: After all, more than 99% of people infected with the virus survive. A treatment regimen that has a 50% reduction in mortality from a disease with a mortality of 1% (high estimate) only provides an absolute risk reduction of 0.5%.
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What is Remdesivir? This antiviral can help a little. But even if you believe that the 3% reduction in mortality is not due to chance (p = 0.06), the number of deaths in the remdesivir arm of the trial was 8%. Remdesivir is not a game changer.
The development of a vaccine for COVID19 is alarming. Many experts say that safe and effective vaccines are available for at least 18 months. Also, 99% survival poses a major safety issue for vaccine manufacturers. (I got this from Dr. Paul Offit.) Because of the public pressure on vaccines, it will take the slightest sign of injury to defeat the coronavirus vaccine.
A small note about the sixth statement on the IFR is still permanent: Some intelligent people say that catching the virus later may be better because the doctors will be better at treating this disease. For example, in a year we may know more about how to use vaccines; maybe we have better media. These are real though. They can lower the IFR a bit but the IFR is already low. Another benefit of having an illness in a year is that most hospitals will allow family visits.
Seventh: The more we test, the less IFR. The original estimate was 3%. It was later changed to 1%. Now most people give it between 0.1-0.5%. But it is still very bad. You’ve probably read that the 0.1% death rate is similar to the flu. It can be bad. Dr. Jeremy Faust says that the death rate from the flu is considered to be less than 0.1%.
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Eighth: I wrote a piece in Medscape about injuries in the COVID19 intervention. One point I made is that now we are only counting deaths due to COVID19. We are firm on the number of days. But the end of this problem is not next month, and 1-2 years. When we get there, we will count the deaths from COVID19
This article from the renowned researcher suggests that the high number of excess deaths during this epidemic is not due to COVID19 and may reflect high death rates from other causes.
In my column, I referred to a previous study by Raj Chetty and his colleagues that found a strong link between low income and low quality of life. But it is true of the COVID19 interventions: they make the poor poorer. Rich people work only at home. Therefore, it is possible that our social intervention is more for the vulnerable.
Eliminate damage from economic disruption. My friend Dr. Dan Morgan rightly expressed his concern in this matter. Why can someone criticize the lack of treatment for COVID19 but not a big help to public health?
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1/ An infectious disease, a liberal, a brilliant scientist who thinks we are wrong in absolutism. (and comparing himself to antivaxxers, Trump, etc.) Lots of unemployment → anxiety and depression and social conflict → @VPrasadMDMPH- Dan Morgan (@dr_dmorgan) May 4, 2020
I did not get a clear answer from my wife. But when you think and write about this question, it seems that the most reasonable approach to this problem is clear information – no matter how cruel. But what is important, we must have room for public debate.
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