(wow) Words Of Wonders Level 699 Answers – In 2005, the global economy was “booming.” During the period from 2001 to 2005, the global growth in per capita energy consumption increased by 2.3% annually. China’s admission to the World Trade Organization in December 2001 led to an increase in demand for all types of fossil fuels. A lot is also going on in the US housing market, because of the low interest rates and standard quality.
The problem in 2005, as now, was energy price inflation leading to general inflation. Food inflation was a huge problem. The central bank decided to solve this problem by increasing the treasury rate from 1.00% to 5.25% from 30 June 2004 to 30 June 2006.
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Now the world is facing a completely different problem. High energy prices are once again fueling food prices and general inflation. But the focus on energy consumption is completely different. Global per capita energy consumption grew at 2.3% annually from 2001 to 2005, but per capita energy consumption is expected to decline slightly from 2017 to 2021.
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The Fed appears to be using a similar approach to current interest rates, under very different circumstances. In this post, I will attempt to explain why I do not believe this approach will produce the desired results.
[1] The rise in interest rates from 2004 to 2006 did not lower oil prices until after July 2008.
Looking at global oil prices, it’s easy to see the impact (or lack thereof) of higher earnings.
Figure 2. Average monthly price of Brent crude based on data from the US Federal Reserve. The last month of the show is July 2022.
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The US Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in June 2004 when the price of Brent crude averaged $38.22 per barrel. These gains stopped growing at the end of June 2006, when oil prices averaged $68.56 per barrel. Crude oil prices were based at $132.72 per barrel in July 2008. (All these amounts are in today’s dollars and not currency conversions.) Thus, the highest price was three times the price in June 2004, when the Federal Reserve was in the United States. I decided to increase the interest rate.
Based on point 2 (which includes my observations about the timing of rate hikes), I conclude that raising rates was not very effective in lowering oil prices during the 2004-2006 test period. Of course, the economy was growing rapidly. , then. Rapid economic growth may have contributed to the rise in oil prices in mid-2008.
I think the Fed raising interest rates, which the world economy is growing rapidly in, can make a huge difference. More global debt may emerge, leading to conditions worse than the 2008 financial crisis. Indirectly, asset prices and commodity prices will drop sharply, including oil prices.
Analysts who look at the situation in terms of energy often miss the economic context. Factors that energy analysts ignore (particularly debt defaults, rising interest rates) can lead to results very different from conventional wisdom. A common belief among energy analysts is that lower oil supplies lead to higher prices and higher oil production. Right now, I think the results could be roughly opposite: Oil prices will fall because of the financial pressures that come with higher interest rates, and lower oil prices will lead to lower oil production.
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The goal of the US Federal Reserve in raising interest rates was to slow the pace of the global economy. Looking at Figure 1, the increase in per capita energy consumption after the Great Recession was much smaller. I suspect that now in 2022, we also want a sharp increase (in fact, a sharp decrease) in per capita energy consumption in the coming years. *
As shown in Figure 1, growth in per capita energy consumption has slowed dramatically since the recession. One wonders: What are governments and their central banks doing to drive the global economy down, now in 2022, when the global economy is already unable to maintain international lines and adequate fuel for all the trucks and equipment in the world? agriculture? ?
If the global economy collapses now, what will happen? Will some countries be unable to afford fossil fuels in the future? This could cause problems in both breeding and food transportation, at least for these countries. Will there be a big crisis like some kind of financial crisis in the whole world? The global economy is a self-regulating system. It is difficult to predict exactly how things will turn out.
[3] As the growth rate of per capita energy consumption slowed significantly after 2008, oil prices quickly reached $120 per barrel at inflation-adjusted prices in 2011-2013.
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Figure 3 shows that oil prices rebounded immediately after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Quantitative easing (QE) initiated by the US Federal Reserve in late 2008 helped fuel prices rise again. Quantitative easing helped keep borrowing at the expense of government borrowing, allowing the government to run larger deficits than would have been possible without raising interest rates. This high deficit increased demand for all kinds of commodities, including oil, which in turn drove up prices.
The table above shows the average annual price of Brent oil through 2021. The table above does not show prices for 2022. The price of Brent oil is currently $91 per barrel. Right now, oil prices are a little higher than they have been recently, but nowhere near as high as they were in 2011 to 2013 or the late 1970s. The extreme behavior we see is surprising. The problem seems to be bigger than the price of oil itself.
[4] The price hikes during the period from 2006 to 2013 led to extraordinary increases in oil prices. Higher oil prices also helped prevent a drop in crude oil production after 2005.
Exact amounts of excess oil are hard to come by, but some countries are known to produce excess oil. For example, the United States has become a leading producer of heavy oil from shale fields. Canada also produces less oil, but also produces the heaviest oil in the oil sands. Venezuela produces another type of heavy oil. Brazil produces crude oil from under sea salt, sometimes called first salt oil. These rare types of downloads are very expensive.
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Figure 4 shows the world’s total oil production. The bottom line is global oil production. The dark gray line represents global oil production. Crude oil production has increased since 2010 for example, so the chart compares better between 2010 and later years than it does with previous years.
Figure 4. Oil and gas production based on international data from the US Energy Information Administration. The graphs below show the total production of crude oil and condensate for the countries listed. These countries have the largest amount of crude oil production, but they may also have natural production.
From this graph, it can be seen that the world’s natural oil production has been declining since 2005. Some people (commonly called “peak oil producers”) were worried that natural oil production would peak after 2005 and begin to decline.
There was a sharp rise in oil prices between 2004 and 2008, which appears to have prevented a decline in production after 2005. Figure 3 shows that oil prices were at their lowest between 1986 and 2003. When oil prices started to rise in 2004 and 2005 Oil companies found enough money in petroleum that they could begin using more powerful (and expensive) pumping systems. It has extracted more oil from conventional oil fields. Of course, even with greater skill, there could still be diminishing returns.
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This decline could be a major reason why crude oil production began to decline in 2019. Directly, lower profits may have contributed to the decline in 2020, as well as the failure of crude oil to return to 2018 (or 2019) levels in 2021.
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Everyone in the world needs the benefits of oil, because it is used in agriculture and in the transportation of all kinds of goods. Therefore, the demand for petroleum products is increasing with the increase in population. I decided to analyze oil production per capita.
Figure 5. Per capita oil consumption
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